Stableford Capital Insights

Stableford Market Commentary: September 2019

Fears of Global Slowdown Dissipate?

After a volatile August, the S&P 500 increased 1.3% during September as fears of the global slowdown began to dissipate (Figure 1).[caption id="attachment_2749" align="aligncenter" width="940"]

Stableford Capital Market Commentary September 2019 Figure 1

Figure 1 Stableford Capital Market Commentary September 2019[/caption]The respite may be short lived however, as early October ISM surveys indicate a contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy. The key question from here is whether the contraction will spread from the relatively small manufacturing component (approximately 10%) to the much larger services side of the US economy.

Rebound in September

Yields on the US 10 Yr., which have been falling all year in anticipation of slowing growth, rebounded during September from 1.5% to 1.67% (Figure 2). Part of this rebound is due to more balanced Fed rhetoric, which brings into question further rate reductions. However, the US 10 Yr. has fallen again in early October to 1.54% as more macroeconomic surveys indicate deceleration.[caption id="attachment_2750" align="aligncenter" width="940"]

Stableford Capital Market Commentary September 2019 Figure 2

Figure 2 Stableford Capital Market Commentary September 2019[/caption]Are you interested in making portfolio changes or getting a more in-depth analysis? Contact Stableford today by calling 480.493.2300 or simply request a free trial of our Market Blast.COMPLIMENTARY TRIAL OF THE STABLEFORD MARKET BLASTThis market commentary was written and produced by Stableford Capital, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Andrew Brinkman
Andrew J. Brinkman is the Founder of Stableford Capital. Over the course of his 45+ year career, he built A.J. Brinkman & Co., a leading foreign exchange arbitrageur and institutional floor broker, was a managing partner of Petros Capital, a long/ short institutional hedge fund and, for the past ten years, he has been a discretionary asset manager for high net-worth families. Andrew Brinkman has been a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the New York Futures Exchange, and the Chicago Board of Trade. A 1978 graduate of Cornell College with degrees in Economics and Political Science, he was a board member for ChildHelp USA, a board member of the Berry Center for Economics, and former trustee of Cornell College.